Iran closes Strait of Hormuz over ceasefire breaches, complicating US talks

What To Watch

• 1.BTC $68,500 — a daily close below this level would confirm a breakdown from the recent consolidation range, signaling increased bearish momentum with potential retests of $65,000.
• 2.Exchange Netflow (BTC) — a sustained positive netflow of over 10,000 BTC per day would signal increased selling pressure from large holders and institutions, indicating potential short-term price weakness.
• 3.Escalation of Middle East conflict to include major oil production disruptions — this would lead to a significant spike in global energy prices, triggering higher inflation expectations and potentially forcing central banks to maintain higher interest rates for longer, negatively impacting risk assets like crypto.